Connectedness: Virtual and Local

Where does all of this tie back to AI? The current trend in machine learning feeds off of data. Without oceans of data, there is no machine learning. Thanks to the Internet of Things, we have at least lakes, perhaps even seas, of data. Oceans of data are just over the horizon. So, while the Internet of Things is important in and of itself, for its ability to generate useful data that we can instrument and act on, it is in the IoT’s enabling of machine-learning technology that things become synergistic and really interesting. While the current state of AI is certainly overhyped, the availability of more data will maximize its promise. As the IoT matures, we will have orders of magnitude more data than ever before. (This may be a frightening thought for people who, 20 years ago, thought we were already experiencing information overload and were in the midst of a data tsunami!)

Living in a Mixed Reality

We’re now making interesting strides forward from a connected world to a virtual-reality (VR) or mixed-reality (MR) world, in the wake of the early 2010s hype cycle. The promise of Oculus Rift as a virtual-reality bombshell over five years ago recently became more nuanced. The 2015 emergence of Pokemon Go as an augmented-reality craze fed a hype cycle around VC funding of mixed-reality technologies. Channeling excitement about the possibilities of MR in the game-design world culminated in a coterie of thoughtful, innovative game-design leaders—including Nicole Lazzaro, Jesse Schell, and Chelsea Howe—designing games for MR platforms. Despite these luminaries shifting their professional focus to work on MR and the novelty that these new experiences offer, so far, they have not realized wow experiences. Or, at least the experiences, while novel, are not yet encouraging people to buy the technology en masse or devote their free time to MR or VR systems. The hardware is still either too clumsy or too low fidelity. These factors constrain these software systems, generally resulting in an uncanny valley that is just short of mixed-reality immersion. Similar to mobile computing in the years before the iPhone, MR hasn’t quite yet arrived.

Nevertheless, these constraints have little bearing on the future. Even today, you no longer need to strap a big box around your head—as with the Oculus Rift—to experience virtual reality, as was necessary just a year or two ago. The integration of feature-film, computer-generated imagery (CGI) into MR—imagery that has only recently gotten to the point where it is indistinguishable from reality when skillfully executed—will play a crucial role in creating software for a more humane, useful, effective hardware platform. We’ll still encounter barriers in creating these experiences. At a minimum, we’ll see the same things that made the Nintendo Wii a toy that required users to rearrange their furniture, to say nothing of the environmentally antisocial aspects of users becoming rhapsodized by a world that is separate from the actual people around them. But viable technology that is no longer novel will drive a platform shift in the way we consume entertainment at home. As our ability to immerse ourselves in physical environments remotely enables us to rethink everything that previously required physical presence, we’ll even remake markets and business models. While we probably won’t see this progress until the 2020s, you can almost touch it—if only virtually.

3D Printing: From Novelty to Industry

Now, let’s consider additive fabrication and the local aspect of our narrative. 3D printing, another technology that, while decades old, has developed substantially in recent years, may seem almost like science fiction to newcomers. But the ability to print out physical components is, indeed, real—and has evolved from plastics to metals, as shown in Figure 2, as well as a variety of other materials. The consumer uses of 3D printing are still largely reserved for the serious hobbyist or novelty seeker. But its business applications—at least among very progressive companies—are already creating new forms of manufacturing and construction. We’re seeing the 3D printing of homes, dental appliances, and replacement parts—even though the technology is still somewhat new.

Image source: MarkForged

It is not too great a leap to imagine the 3D printing of large home appliances, automobiles, and computers in the not-distant future. While, ultimately, there must be limits to what these additive fabrication technologies can create, those boundaries are not yet crisp. Like mixed reality—and possibly in an ecosystem where 3D printing is closely integrated with mixed reality—additive fabrication could change the face of manufacturing. Will manufacturers fabricate consumer products hyperlocally, eschewing the cliché of the Chinese factory for an efficient maker lab in your local town? Will you choose your next car using an AR headset, then have your highly customized car fabricated at a shop around the corner and delivered to your door the same day? Microsoft is already imagining the first part of this equation, as depicted in Figure 3. Needless to say, if and when these technologies reach this level, the world will be meaningfully different from the one to which we are accustomed.

Image source: Microsoft

Closing Thoughts

This is the thrill of these smartware technologies that are emerging at roughly the same time and happen to be incredibly synergistic. Leveraging all of these technologies—from AI and the IoT, to MR and 3D printing, and the various connections between them—will deliver meaningful impact to the world, in ways that the applications of the early 2000s never did. This is a heady time, as we’re beginning to see a delicious near-term future. But despite the excitement around all of this new technology, we haven’t even gotten into the other game-changing part of our narrative: the sciences. In the midst of the age of digital, cutting-edge science has never been closer to commercialization. We’ll soon see the integration of great scientific advances into the product pipeline. In our next installment, we’ll explore this most exciting aspect of the smartware revolution.